By Pavel Barseghyan, PhD
Dallas, USA and Yerevan, Armenia
This paper is section 5.1 from the unpublished book “Mathematical methods in human labor research and new directions in quantitative project management (Missing nonlinearities in quantitative project management)”.
The high percentage of project failures continues to be a central topic of discussion in the field of project management. Improving the quality of planning and execution of projects is one of the main ways to repair the situation with the massive failure of projects.
In this regard, this paper discusses the problems of overcoming the difficulties in the quantitative management of projects related to the need to improve the accuracy of project estimates.
The problem here is that in the framework of existing quantitative project management methodologies project estimation problems have no satisfactory solutions.
The solution of these problems requires more decisive steps, up to a paradigm shift in the quantitative project management.
Keywords: Quantitative project management, failure of projects, project estimation errors, system dynamics, mental models, statistical methods, paradigm shift
About the Author
Pavel Barseghyan, PhD
Dr. Pavel Barseghyan is a consultant in the field of quantitative project management, project data mining and organizational science. Has over 40 years experience in academia, the electronics industry, the EDA industry and Project Management Research and tools development. During the period of 1999-2010 he was the Vice President of Research for Numetrics Management Systems. Prior to joining Numetrics, Dr. Barseghyan worked as an R&D manager at Infinite Technology Corp. in Texas. He was also a founder and the president of an EDA start-up company, DAN Technologies, Ltd. that focused on high-level chip design planning and RTL structural floor planning technologies. Before joining ITC, Dr. Barseghyan was head of the Electronic Design and CAD department at the State Engineering University of Armenia, focusing on development of the Theory of Massively Interconnected Systems and its applications to electronic design. During the period of 1975-1990, he was also a member of the University Educational Policy Commission for Electronic Design and CAD Direction in the Higher Education Ministry of the former USSR. Earlier in his career he was a senior researcher in Yerevan Research and Development Institute of Mathematical Machines (Armenia). He is an author of nine monographs and textbooks and more than 100 scientific articles in the area of quantitative project management, mathematical theory of human work, electronic design and EDA methodologies, and tools development. More than 10 Ph.D. degrees have been awarded under his supervision. Dr. Barseghyan holds an MS in Electrical Engineering (1967) and Ph.D. (1972) and Doctor of Technical Sciences (1990) in Computer Engineering from Yerevan Polytechnic Institute (Armenia). Pavel’s publications can be found here: http://www.scribd.com/pbarseghyan and here: http://pavelbarseghyan.wordpress.com/. Pavel can be contacted at firstname.lastname@example.org